Jour : 28 décembre 2024

A Journal of Analysis and News

EU signs Security Agreement with Japan. Photo Credit: Josep Borrell, X
By East Asia Forum
By Paul O’Shea
In early November 2024, Japan and the European Union signed a security and defence partnership. Amid a flurry of other events — North Korean troops in Ukraine, the US election, another looming trade war and Germany’s political and economic crises — this agreement may have gone unnoticed. Even as the world speeds up, EU–Japan relations continue to progress according to their own slow and incremental logic, as if from another era.
The November 2024 agreement reflects this dynamic — it is the next step following the 2018 Economic and Strategic Partnership Agreement. Both agreements promise deeper cooperation across a wide range of economic, social and security issues. But for now, they remain too vague and exploratory to keep pace with accelerating geopolitics.
The 2018 agreement was concluded in a period of geopolitical uncertainty. The European Union was dealing with the fallout from Brexit while struggling to manage relations with the first Trump administration. Japan, under Abe, was managing Trump in its own way while building partnerships to hedge against US decline and growing isolationism.
Six years later, the outlook for both parties is even bleaker. The European Union successfully managed Brexit but right-wing populism continues to rise across the continent. Trump’s return threatens the global economic and security order underpinning European prosperity. In Washington, the so-called ‘prioritisers’ — those that favour focusing on China while reducing involvement in other regions — are coming to power, leaving Europe to consider deterring Russia without US support.
Japan’s position, though less dire, remains uncertain. Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, has previously targeted Japan for tariffs. Even if Japan avoids the coming Trump tariffs, his re-election sends an ominous signal to US allies. While Japan can take comfort in the fact that the United States needs its support to contain China, four more years of Trump means that nothing can be taken for granted. Looking beyond the next four years, US transactionalism and isolationism can no longer be dismissed as a blip. This is clearly a trend.
The 2018 agreement provided a broad framework to formalise cooperation across a range of issue areas, including trade, climate change, energy and human rights. While two structurally similar advanced economies will struggle to achieve massive gains from trade, bilateral trade and investment flows have increased significantly. Non-tariff barriers remain an obstacle but these are expected to fade as the two economies become more deeply interconnected.
The 2018 strategic partnership aimed to lay a foundation for future cooperation, focusing on ‘safe’ areas such as climate change. Since then, cooperation has deepened and moved into ‘harder’ sectors. Japanese former prime minister Kishida attended the NATO summits in 2022, 2023 and 2024, while the European Union and Japan implemented a new strategic dialogue at the foreign minister level. In November 2023 and again in 2024, former vice-president of the European Commission Josep Borrell met with Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Iwaya Takeshi, and it was at this latter meeting that the Defense Partnership was formalised.
This new agreement highlights a wide range of potential fields of cooperation — just as the 2018 agreement did. It includes important new steps, most notably increasing maritime security cooperation, including proposed joint exercises and port calls. While neither China nor Russia are mentioned, the agreement explicitly links the security of Europe with that of the Indo-Pacific’ and vice-versa.
The agreement also calls for ‘exploring the opportunity’ to build maritime capacity in third-party Indo-Pacific states among other initiatives. But there lies a key issue — much of the agreement is ‘exploratory’. The text is littered with references to ‘exploring the possibility of cooperation’ in various fields. Given the acute crisis that US alliance partners face today, the language is vague and unhurried.
The progress since 2018 is evident but pales in comparison to the dramatic geopolitical shifts in the same period. If there was a time to move from ‘exploration’ to ‘cooperation’, it is now. The shared interests are obvious — both parties have built their prosperity on the rules-based international order. They also share a growing fear of the authoritarian challenge posed by China and Russia, and of the threat to the most basic norms of the post-World War II international order. 
But despite these shared values and fears, a rapid response seems beyond their reach for several reasons. Kishida’s reaction to Ukraine was lauded, promising major increases in military spending, circumventing restrictions on arms exports and seeking to develop ties with NATO. But even at the time, there were questions about where the money would come from. The October election left the ruling Liberal Democratic Party without a coalition majority, adding political constraints to the existing fiscal and demographic challenges.
Meanwhile in Europe, substantial deepening of security ties with Japan would require the unlikely unanimity of member states — a feat that is difficult to achieve given their divergent interests, particularly when it comes to issues that, if only tangentially, involve China.
The trajectory and pace of EU–Japan security relations indicate that neither side is currently in a position to be a major geopolitical player outside their immediate neighbourhood. This may change, especially if the China–Russia entente deepens or further significant events occur. But the new agreement, exploratory as it is, marks the limits of possible cooperation.
East Asia Forum is a platform for analysis and research on politics, economics, business, law, security, international relations and society relevant to public policy, centred on the Asia Pacific region. It consists of an online publication and a quarterly magazine, East Asia Forum Quarterly, which aim to provide clear and original analysis from the leading minds in the region and beyond.
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A look at the game odds and player projections for the New Mexico Bowl
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
In the era of transfer portal and rampant opt-outs, predicting what might happen on the field during bowl season is often a total guessing game, measuring the weight of motivation vs. remaining rostered talent. The Horned Frogs & Ragin Cajuns are certainly impacted with diminished depth charts for Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl. TCU will most notably be without star wide receivers Jack Bech & Savion Williams who are both recovering from injuries suffered in the season finale and will turn focus to training for the Senior Bowl & NFL Draft. Louisiana will also be without two of its top pass catchers, losing WR Harvey Broussard & TE Terrance Carter who both transferred to Big 12 programs. The Cajuns will also be without its second-leading tackler with LB Carmycah Glass and his 75 tackles transferred to Houston.
While the Horned Frogs have had a disappointing season relative to its standards and the 2024 schedule, only covering the spread in five games this year, TCU has actually covered as a favorite in its last three games, with comfortable wins over Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati. The New Mexico Bowl becomes TCU’s second-largest spread as a favorite this season, with the previous being a home loss to Houston as a 16.5-point favorite. If the Frogs are to avoid another embarrassment as a double-digit favorite the trend of success over the back half of the season must continue, despite missing several of the offensive weapons that brought on that turnaround. The line movement has been intriguing, opening with the Frogs as low as an 8.5-point favorite, climbing as high as 13.5 before a flurry of action came in on the Cajuns on Friday to drop this spread to an even ten. With the late movement, the game is now reported as a 50-50 split with equal money wagered on each side of the spread.
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 291.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 72.5
Eric McAlister, Receiving Yards: 60.5
Missing Cam Cook, Savion Williams and even the running threat of backup QB Hauss Hejny, it seems TCU’s offense will revert fully to the Josh Hoover show. While Trent Battle, Jeremy Payne and the rush attack is still plenty capable of handling an appropriate work load, the Frogs will look to return to its bread and butter passing game to pick up chunks of yardage a Ragin’ Cajuns defense that has been very strong vs. the pass. With an average per-game of 100 yards under this projection for Hoover, Louisiana has not allowed a passer to cross this threshold yet this season, with the top performer being South Alabama’s Gio Lopez reaching 285 in the Jags win. McAlister looks to be the best of the Horned Frog options on the board, despite only clearing this number four times in the regular season. McAlister is the clear top beneficiary of the lost Bech & Williams production, but his number didn’t take an egregious leap up.
Ben Wooldridge, Pass Yards: 201.5
Lance LeGendre, Receiving Yards: 62.5
Elijah Davis, Rush Yards: 89.5
Kenneth Almendares, Kicking Points: 5.5
With Lou Groza Award winner Almendares on its side, the Cajuns have a distinct advantage in the special teams department. Unless the Frogs are only allowing touchdowns and Almendares is only kicking extra points, it’s hard to imagine he’s held under this number, even in the unlikely case that TCU fully thwarts whatever UL looks to do offensively. The Cajuns have a history of top end talent at the running back position, including former TCU star Emani Bailey before he transferred to the Frogs, and Davis is another in that lineage of strong runners. Davis has crossed the century mark twice this season, averaging over 80 yards per game during the regular season; given TCU’s struggles defending the run, this “demon square” good be a good shot at a higher payout. LeGendre’s number is set at exactly his per-game average and has surpassed this projection six times this season; with his two top competitors for targets already transferred out, expect LeGendre to see a large share of the Cajuns pass game and a solid opportunity to grab enough of those targets to reach this projection. This passing yardage total for Wooldridge feels overly respectful of the TCU defense; he’s surpassed this number in seven of his ten games played this season, with two of those he was just short by a handful of yards. While possible LaMareon James, Bud Clark, and the TCU secondary shut down the Cajuns, if indeed the Frogs start running away with this game as the wide point spread suggests, UL will take to the air in efforts to get back into it.

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12/27/2024 11:48:00 AM
According to CCData, today's key developments in the cryptocurrency market include Bitwise's filing for an ETF that tracks 'Bitcoin Standard' companies, which could attract institutional investors looking for exposure to Bitcoin-related firms. Additionally, Solana's largest decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator is planning a significant 'Jupuary' airdrop, which may impact Solana's trading volume and price. Furthermore, Russian companies are increasingly using cryptocurrencies for international trade, potentially boosting crypto adoption in Russia. (Source)
More from CCData (@CCData_io): CCData provides top-tier data and index solutions, research and events to support the adoption of digital assets.
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By Cira Pascual Marquina (Posted Dec 27, 2024)
Joel Suárez is a long-time social activist and theologian who is part of the Martin Luther King Memorial Center in Cuba. This ecumenical organization promotes social participation and solidarity. In this interview, Suárez offers an intimate and thought-provoking perspective on Venezuelan former President Hugo Chávez’s spiritual trajectory. In Part I, Suárez talked about Chávez’s first encounter with Fidel Castro and drew interesting connections between Liberation Theology and Chávez’s way of doing politics. Here, in Part II, we continue the conversation on Chávez’s unique leadership style.
Cira Pascual Marquina: You recalled earlier a phone conversation you had with Chávez before a mass rally in the context of the 2006 World Social Forum in Caracas. I remember that meeting in the Poliedro, which was extraordinary, with thousands attending. Can you tell our readers about it?
Joel Suárez: That day was extraordinary indeed. The event began with a “mística” with the Benedictine friar Marcelo Barros organized by Brazil’s Landless Workers Movement, but what was most moving was that it was the first time “The Internationale” was sung at a public act with Chávez… Many of us teared up singing it. Our community was coming together!
Politics is harsh and sometimes leaves wounds—disruptions, tensions, frustrations. These arise within organizations and among militants. Chávez was always conscious of this, so his speeches often began with a very long, detailed, and even boring list of salutations to acknowledge everyone present. He wanted everyone to know that they too were being taken into account.
In my view, Chávez’s practice of opening with long salutations, in addition to healing wounds, had a pastoral basis. For him, no one was more important than any other person who was present, regardless of whether they were a president, an intellectual, or an activist.
In any case, after all the long greetings and salutations, Chávez’s speech in the context of the World Social Forum was deliberate, careful, engaging, and meaningful.
On January 27, 2006, Hugo Chávez addressed a mass rally in the Caracas Poliedro. In the meeting “The Internationale” was sung and he said: “We are facing a choice: socialism or death.” (MinCI)
CPM: That was one key moment in Chávez’s trajectory, but let’s rewind four years to another moment that you consider very important. It was when Fidel Castro sent an key message to Chávez during the coup d’état on April 11, 2002. Could you talk about that moment?
JS: The story has been told before, but it’s worth recalling. When Fidel saw what was happening in Caracas, he realized that Chávez had an ethically grounded and politically essential disposition to give his life, to sacrifice it.
That is why, as the coup unfolded, Fidel told him, “cuídate” [take care of yourself].
CPM: Some say that Fidel also told him: “Don’t be like Allende!” 
JS: That’s right. In doing so, Fidel wasn’t undervaluing the ultimate sacrifice; rather, he was thinking about its purpose. The principle of hope that had materialized in the revolutionary struggle required that Chávez be alive.
Fidel was able to hold Chávez back, although the Venezuelan president’s disposition to make the ultimate sacrifice as a gift for life would re-emerge later.
CPM: That would be at the end of his life. Can you talk about Chávez’s “calvary,” his last years when he frequently visited Cuba to treat his cancer?
JS: When Chávez was in the hospital in La Habana [2012], he asked that my dad [Reverend Raúl Suárez] send him books about Liberation Theology and other texts relating to these themes.
It should be pointed out, however, that for Chávez, even if he identified as a Christian and a believer, his spirituality was an open one. He drew from many sources.
I do not want to be sacrilegious—I want to respect believers who may not share my particular vision of Chávez as a man of Christian faith—but I see his faith as anthropological. It was a faith in life itself.
Chávez was going to live his Golgotha, his calvary, and he knew he could face the cross. When this became clear he flew back [to Venezuela] to confess to his community, to his comrades, to his pueblo. That was a moment that we—those committed to the revolution—experienced collectively.
CPM: Indeed, there are historical moments that become foci of collective consciousness. The episode you refer to on December 8, 2012, when Chavez announced on national television that he might die, was certainly one of them. 
JS: On December 8, many of us also experienced the mystery of God. For me, the great mystery in Jesus Christ’s crucifixion is when the Son cries out: Father, why have you abandoned me? Chávez must have also felt abandoned by God. We find the sanctity of Chávez—not his divinity—in that pain.
For me, as a man of faith, Christ and Chávez have different places. Chávez was a brother in God, but Jesus is the older brother.
Chávez’s humanity was evident in his love for and his connection with the pueblo. This is captured in the iconic photo of him standing in the rain during the 2012 presidential campaign: because it wasn’t just any rain; the rain pouring down on him was the rain that blesses, cleanses, and washes away the tears of the pueblo.
Losing Chávez wasn’t easy, and I believe we’ve been slow to respond to the spiritual wake-up call that he embodied. We’ve been somewhat lethargic—not exactly delayed, but sluggish—at a time when conservatism and evangelical fundamentalism are advancing. We have been ineffective in reclaiming this spiritual and political synthesis that Chávez embodied.
As dwellers of this continent, the God of all names occupies a place in our lives and hearts. Alongside that, a passion burns in many people for justice and a commitment to the Revolution that seeks to make justice a reality. Chávez combined both.
Chávez singing the “Alma Llanera.” (YVKE)
CPM: We have centered our conversation on Chávez’s spirituality, but there are other, more playful aspects of his way of doing politics.
JS: Chávez’s approach to spirituality was a unique synthesis. It was often playful, but always enlightening. I say this based on the diverse readings he did—both early and late in life—and his command of the biblical text. All this merged his deep understanding of Venezuelan and continental history, and his passion for Bolívar. Chávez embodied a popular, grassroots-based Latin American and Caribbean liberation theology.
But Chávez’s theology merged his innovative political vision as a leader with a discourse that brought diverse themes. These ranged from baseball tactics—Who’s got the ball? Who’s up to bat? What kind of hit will they make?—to the Alma Llanera [possibly Chávez’s favorite song], all of it combined with his rejoicing in the world of the common man and his buzzing desire to enjoy life.
Chávez’s character was something that he often backgrounded in his role as a leader, orator, public figure, and head of state. He often stood in his post with “proper” composure, but sometimes he couldn’t help himself, like the time at the UN General Assembly when he said “It smells like sulfur here,” after Bush had spoken. Chávez’s spontaneity and candor won us all over.
But Chávez was not just about baseball and singing on stage. Like Fidel, he embodied an intellectual tradition that can be traced back to thinkers like Simón Rodríguez [Bolívar’s teacher] and José Martí, whose understanding of education was revolutionary and ahead of their time. I’d say Rodríguez and Martí anticipated much of what [Brazilian educator] Paulo Freire developed in Latin America during the 1960s and 70s.
Both Fidel and Chávez addressed the real, concrete problems people face. They would take the time to analyze a problem thoroughly—its causes, consequences, and underlying priorities—before proposing solutions. For both, the central element to any solution was the subject: the masses, the pueblo.
Revolutionary transformation—the process of addressing every problem with a broader vision—cannot be conceived without popular participation and protagonism. Mobilizing the people, actively involving them, making them the protagonists of change—this was fundamental to the vision that Fidel and Chávez shared… but in Chávez, play and joy were also integral to the whole affair.
This combination resonated deeply with our pueblos. Chávez was a fusion of reflection, spirituality, and celebration, which served as both a form of resistance and a principle of hope.
Chávez under the rain on October 4, 2012. (Prensa Presidencial)
This year, Brazil and China celebrate fifty years of official diplomatic relations. The importance of the Sino-Brazilian relationship cannot be underestimated in the context of the rise of the Global South, the decline of U.S. hegemony, and the emergence of a New Cold War. With a look back into the history of bilateral relations, how […]
In this republished essay from 1996, Samir Amin gives his view of Samuel Huntington’s theory of “clash of civilizations.” His demonstration of why culturalism and imperialism reinforce each other, and how victims can be led to accept “difference” in place of equality and liberation, is today of potential utility everywhere.
 
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

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Federal government nears debt-ceiling limit, Yellen warns  The Washington Post
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Only Feminism Can Prevent Global Warming  National Review
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Love and Relationship Horoscope for December 28, 2024  Hindustan Times
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Cloudy. Low 27F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph..
Cloudy. Low 27F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.
Updated: December 27, 2024 @ 7:19 pm
Watertown High School. Sydney Schaefer/Watertown Daily Times

Staff Writer
Watertown High School. Sydney Schaefer/Watertown Daily Times
WATERTOWN — A new principal in the Watertown City School District has resigned, Superintendent Larry C. Schmiegel said Friday.
Susan R. Nedza, who was appointed as principal of Ohio Elementary School on Dec. 18, will no longer be the top administrator of the elementary school. Schmiegel said Nedza did not provide a reasoning for the resignation.
Michael Lennox will be serving as the interim principal. Lennox has previously served as the principal of Starbuck Elementary and the district’s athletic director.
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