US President Donald Trump has threatened Nigeria with military intervention over the “killing of Christians”. The Nigerian security crisis has garnered attention in recent weeks from Trump and his administration, who have characterized the situation as a “Christian genocide”. Experts have rebuked this designation as false and overly simplistic, stating that the ongoing situation is more complex.
On October 31, Trump designated Nigeria a “country of particular concern” under the US International Religious Freedom Act of 1998. In a social media post, Trump said, “Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria” and “radical Islamists are responsible for this mass slaughter.” At the beginning of November, Trump threatened to cut off aid to Nigeria and declared that the United States “may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.” Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed pushed back against these accusations in a social media statement on November 1st, saying, “Nigeria opposes religious persecution and does not encourage it. Nigeria is a country with constitutional guarantees to protect citizens of all faiths.” Whilst the Nigerian government has said it welcomes help combating insurgent groups, Trump has continued to threaten unilateral military intervention.
As Trump and other right-wing lawmakers have continued to make claims that there is a “Christian genocide” campaign in Nigeria, experts refute this. “All the data reveals is that there is no Christian genocide going on in Nigeria,” Bulama Bukarti, a Nigerian humanitarian lawyer and analyst on conflict and development, told Al Jazeera, saying that it was “a dangerous, far-right narrative that has been simmering for a long time that President Trump is amplifying today.”
Nigeria’s population of 220 million is divided nearly evenly between Muslims and Christians. Religious violence and persecution throughout the country’s modern history have been tied to other conflicts related to politics, ethnicity, as well as resource management and access. The middle belt of Nigeria, a center of much of the recent violence, has large minority populations and is the location of ongoing herder-farmer conflicts, which have been used in a narrative of “Christian genocide.” Primarily Christian farmers and predominantly Muslim herders have come increasingly into conflict in recent years due to climate change, resource competition, and criminal exploitation. “Many Nigerian crises are essentially about the marginalisation of political, ethnic and religious minorities. Such minorities feel whatever little resources they have left are being taken away by the majority or state-backed minorities,” says The Guardian’s West Africa correspondent, Eromo Egbejule. “It’s just that the most colourful manifestation of this marginalisation is between Christians and Muslims, and most minorities in the middle belt are Christian.”
Boko Haram, an extremist insurgent group operating in the northeast, has targeted both Christian and Muslim communities that do not adhere to their version of Islam. Olayinka Ajala, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations at Leeds Beckett University, stated that “both Christians and Muslims are under attack by terrorist and insurgent groups in Nigeria” in an analysis of insurgent violence in Nigeria between 2014-2024. Ajala concludes that “it is difficult, if not impossible, to delineate the killings based on religious affiliations. All the religions in the country have been affected, and there have been fatalities across several ethnic and religious lines.”
The Trump administration’s threats of unilateral military action in Nigeria are dangerous and counterproductive, experts say. Nigeria does need assistance in countering insurgency, according to Ebenezer Obadare, a senior fellow for Africa Studies at the Washington, D.C.-based Council on Foreign Relations. However, Obadare says this must be done in collaboration with the Nigerian government, telling Al Jazeera, “the wrong thing to do is to invade Nigeria and override the authorities or the authority of the Nigerian government. Doing that will be counterproductive.” Addressing the security crisis and working towards peacebuilding in Nigeria will require the United States to work diplomatically in collaboration with the Nigerian government. A first step is for the countries to work together in addressing insurgency and their financial sources, rather than threatening to enter the country ‘guns-a-blazing,’ as Trump threatened in a social media post. Unilateral interventionism in a complex, multifaceted crisis will only have devastating consequences.
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