Researchers have analyzed cause-of-death data for 24 countries, uncovering the extensive impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy.
The study reveals sharp declines in life expectancy across most countries in 2020 and 2021, driven by both direct and indirect effects of the pandemic.
In 2020, life expectancy fell in all but four of the 24 countries studied, with the United States experiencing the steepest decline of 2.1 years for males.
The downward trend continued into 2021, with females in Bulgaria and males in Latvia suffering losses exceeding two years. Japan and South Korea emerged as notable exceptions, experiencing only minimal declines during this period.
“This study explores the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality across the world and highlights that life expectancy losses had still not returned to pre-pandemic levels in several countries by 2022,” noted Antonino Polizzi, lead author and student at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.
Beyond COVID-19-related deaths, the study found increased mortality from cardiovascular diseases significantly contributed to the decline in life expectancy.
Russia and Bulgaria were particularly affected, with cardiovascular disease-related losses reaching 5.3 months in Russia in 2020 and 5.5 months in Bulgaria in 2021. These figures may reflect disruptions in prevention and treatment or undercounted COVID-19 fatalities.
“The pandemic reversed years of progress in reducing cardiovascular deaths in several countries, which constituted one of the largest sources of gains in life expectancy over the period 2015–2019. These losses continued through 2022,” noted Professor Jennifer Dowd, Deputy Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science.
Substance abuse and mental health-related causes also surged in certain regions. The United States and Canada saw significant increases in drug-related deaths, contributing to their life expectancy declines.
Latvia faced notable alcohol-related mortality, while suicide and accident mortality typically declined during the pandemic years. However, Japan’s females experienced comparatively large losses from suicide mortality in 2020.
Despite the many challenges highlighted in the study, there was some encouraging news regarding cancer mortality.
In most countries, deaths from cancer continued to decline during the pandemic. This indicates that the disruptions to cancer care, such as screenings or treatments, may not have been as severe as initially feared.
The researchers propose two potential reasons for this trend:
The findings emphasize the need for resilient health care systems capable of maintaining care for various conditions during global crises.
Addressing regional disparities and developing targeted public health interventions are critical to mitigating the broader impacts of future pandemics.
“This study highlights the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic impacted other causes of death, and the need to analyze different diseases and causes of death in a post-pandemic context to identify factors that can improve global health care systems,” said Dr. José Manuel Aburto, a co-author and demographer.
In conclusion, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant and lasting effect on global life expectancy, undoing progress made in areas like reducing deaths from cardiovascular disease and other preventable conditions.
Many countries saw increases in mortality, not just from COVID-19 itself, but also from related issues like delayed medical care and worsening health conditions. This setback has reversed years of health improvements, highlighting vulnerabilities in global health systems.
By studying these changes and understanding the factors behind them, policymakers and health authorities can learn valuable lessons.
This analysis emphasizes the importance of creating healthcare systems that are both robust – able to handle emergencies – and equitable – ensuring all populations have access to care during a crisis.
The study is published in the journal PNAS Nexus.
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