The Arizona political landscape may lack superstars currently who could single-handedly reshape policy following November’s election, but voters and pundits will want to keep an eye on several key players.
State government remains divided politically, with a Republican majority again dominating the state House and Senate, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs at the ready with her veto stamp, Republican elected officials in Maricopa County with vastly different ideas about election reform and Democratic party members calculating their next steps after local losses.
Some leaders will stand out over others based on their ideas or personalities. Here are five people in state politics to watch in 2025.
How Hobbs comports herself in 2025, the third year of her four-year term, will help determine whether she’s reelected or ousted a year later. She’ll need to repel the political assault of an emboldened and slightly larger Republican majority in the state Legislature following November’s election.
It’ll be a challenging year in which she’ll see the rise of a potentially strong Republican competitor in Karrin Taylor Robson, who was recently endorsed by President-elect Donald Trump, while also facing a possible challenger from her own party.
She’ll need to appear strong, or in the words of Republican lobbyist and consultant Kevin DeMenna, “not make it look like Chad (Campbell, Hobbs’ chief of staff) is making all the important decisions.”
Yet she’ll also have to avoid completely alienating right-leaning independents and anti-MAGA conservatives who might help her overcome a Republican registration advantage in 2026.
“Gov. Hobbs is going to have to take note of this 2024 election, where Democrats vastly outspent Republicans and yet Republicans gained seats,” said political consultant Barrett Marson. “She is going to have to be more amenable to Republican priorities in general, and specifically on the border.”
Montenegro’s an immigrant who moved to Arizona from El Salvador with his parents when he was 5 years old. He was voted in by his peers to serve as the state’s first Latino House speaker in the upcoming legislative session.
A veteran Republican lawmaker who’s served about 14 total years in the state Legislature with a break from 2018 to 2022, Montenegro replaces outgoing House Speaker Ben Toma, who served in the position for two years. He’ll set the agenda, negotiate a budget with Hobbs and Senate President Warren Petersen, and try to keep 32 fellow Republican House members in line. Some members of the conservative Arizona Freedom Caucus publicly grumbled after he was selected to lead the chamber by secret ballot.
Because he’s starting a new second term as a House member, “he’ll be in that position potentially for six years, which will put him in a great position of influence,” said Daniel Scarpinato, who worked as chief-of-staff for former Gov. Doug Ducey.
Democratic leaders are rallying in support of a second term for Bejarano despite losses in the election, including a failed attempt to tie or win a majority in the Legislature. Assuming no coup when Democrats meet to elect their leaders next month, she’ll stay in the saddle to help reorganize and plan the party’s strategy following this year’s disaster.
Democratic registration dropped in Arizona over the past two years, a prime factor in the losses. But supporters credit Bejarano, an experienced union organizer, with boosting Democratic fundraising this year and supplying more get-out-the-vote resources. Her leadership at the Democratic party over the next year will help determine the course of potential wins for Democrats in 2026.
Shamp, who was reelected to her second term office in November, has become a rising star in state Republican circles. She was just named Senate majority leader by Petersen. The cowgirl-hat-wearing nurse from Surprise has been at the forefront of major issues locally, like sponsoring the Arizona Border Invasion Act this year. After Hobbs vetoed that bill, Republican lawmakers reshaped its key provisions into the Secure the Border Act, a ballot measure voters passed overwhelmingly in November.
“She’s a rock star,” said lobbyist Michael Gardner. “She’s got the passion, the street cred, and she’s smart. She knows how to manage difficult people in intense situations.”
Gardner said another of her advantages is not being a member of the conservative Arizona Freedom Caucus — a group that occasionally upsets the plans of Republican leadership — while still being recognized as “Freedom Caucus-adjacent.” That shows she’s “respected from all sides” of the GOP, he added.
Yet Shamp is also a lightning rod for criticism of her culture-war positions, including her condemnations of COVID-19 vaccinations and child transgender surgeries. She chaired a special pandemic committee last year, the name of which used the same initials as a common QAnon motto, “Nothing Can Stop What Is Coming.”
The new legislative session begins Jan. 13 with a reduced Freedom Caucus membership following November’s elections. But Hoffman’s energized and already showing up in the spotlight.
He chaired a hearing in December accusing the Phoenix Fire Department of violating state law with its diversity, equity and inclusion practices and is demanding an audit of the Arizona State Schools for the Deaf and Blind, saying he would reveal its yet-unspecified “financial mismanagement.”
The well-connected Republican politician, owner of political marketing businesses, father of five children, chair of the Arizona Freedom Caucus and Republican National Committeeman for Arizona, was recently reelected to his third term in the state Legislature and his second as a state senator.
Petersen again assigned him to chair the state Senate’s Committee on Director Nominations, setting the stage for more blustery criticism by Hoffman of Hobbs’ nominees for agency director jobs. Hobbs blamed Hoffman for forcing her to abandon the Senate confirmation process for her nominees. But a judge ruled her workaround was unlawful, and she struck a deal with Petersen to restart the nomination hearings.
Another area of Hoffman’s political life worth watching: He’s still facing felony prosecution related to his role in connection with the fake electors case, which may linger for a year or more without much progress but also could see Hoffman’s defense making headway in 2025. His legal team got Maricopa County Judge Bruce Cohen kicked off the case last month after the surfacing of politically biased emails Cohen authored.
Reach the reporter at rstern@arizonarepublic.com or 480-276-3237. Follow him on X@raystern.
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