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San Antonio Spurs
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Daniel Mader
Victor Wembanyama has been critical to the Spurs‘ success in the 2024-25 season.
Sitting at 23-29 as of Thursday, San Antonio’s .442 winning percentage is on track to be its best since 2020-21 (.458). At the very least, the Spurs have been competing for a play-in tournament spot as they seek their first playoff appearance since the 2018-19 campaign.
Wembanyama, recently named an All-Star for the first time, has lifted the Spurs’ ceiling with his stardom. But the squad got bad news Thursday as its star big man will miss the rest of the 2024-25 season with a deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder, per ESPN’s Shams Charania.
With Wembanyama sidelined, the trajectory of San Antonio’s season could change. It may be tough for the Spurs to compete for a play-in tournament spot, let alone the playoffs, as they’ll likely plummet in the standings without their 7-foot-3 star center.
Here’s how Wembanyama’s injury could impact the Spurs’ chances of a top selection in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery.
MORE: Latest updates on Victor Wembanyama's season-ending injury
The 14 teams that miss out on the NBA Playoffs will be entered into the Draft Lottery. After the regular season is over, those 14 teams are given their odds for the No. 1 selection in the draft, with better chances given to teams with worse records.
It’s important to note that only the top-four overall selections are actually decided by the lottery. Picks 5-through-14 are then assigned based on the inverse order of the remaining team’s records.
Unlike some other professional sports leagues, owning the league’s worst record does not guarantee the No. 1 selection in the NBA. The squads with three-worst records all have the same chances at the first pick, 14%, but with the way the lottery is designed, the team with the worst record can fall no lower than the No. 5 pick.
The teams with the higher odds at the No. 1 selection are given more ping pong balls out of the combined total, increasing their chances of being drawn in the lottery when the four balls are selected for the top-four picks.
Here’s the full breakdown of No. 1 pick odds for the 14 non-playoff teams in reverse order of the final standings:
For lottery teams with identical records, their chances at the top selection are averaged between the two teams. After the top-four picks are decided, if two teams have identical records from Pick No. 5 on, then the tiebreaking procedure is just a coin flip/random drawings between the squads, which the league then announces afterward.
MORE: What to know about deep vein thrombosis, which ended Victor Wembanyama's season
At the time of the Wemby news, the Spurs sit at 12th in the Western Conference with a 23-29 record and 30 games remaining. In a league-wide view, San Antonio has the 10th-worst record in the NBA, slightly better than Portland (23-32) but worse than Miami (25-28).
Based on the Spurs’ current standing, they would have a 3.0% chance at the No. 1 pick for the 2025 NBA Draft. Per Tankathon, that also includes a 3.3% chance at the second overall pick, a 3.6% chance at the third overall pick and a 4.0% chance at the fourth overall pick.
For the time being, San Antonio’s highest chances would be for the 10th overall pick at 65.9%.
MORE: Predicting the rest of the 2024-25 NBA season
While the Spurs have the league’s 10th-worst record for now, it’s fair to assume they could fall further in the standings without Wembanyama. This season, he’s accounted for 24.3 of San Antonio’s 113 points per game (21.5%), 11 of the team’s 45 rebounds per game (24.4%) and 3.8 of the team’s 6.5 blocks per game (58.5%).
According to NBA.com, the Spurs have a 112.5 offensive rating and a 110.0 defensive rating this season when Wembanyama is on the court. When he’s not playing, the Spurs have a 107.5 offensive rating (decrease of 5.0) and a 115.4 defensive rating (increase of 5.4). Objectively, Wembanyama is one of the most valuable and impactful players in the NBA — especially with his defensive presence.
According to StatMuse, the Spurs have gone 5-12 without Wembanyama in his career so far, a .294 win percentage. For comparison, a .294 win percentage would give a team the fifth-worst record in the league as things stand in the 2024-25 season. And with the Spurs recently adding another All-Star to their roster, point guard De’Aaron Fox, they may not be completely doomed without Wembanyama.
With just 30 games remaining, it would be tough for the Spurs to lose enough to catch the Wizards (9-45), Pelicans (13-42), Jazz (13-41), Hornets (14-39) and Raptors (17-38). If the Wembanyama-less Spurs struggle, they could possibly fall in range for the sixth-to-eighth-worst record in the league, potentially increasing their No. 1 pick chances to 6.0% or higher.
The Spurs’ most direct competition in the Draft Lottery race will be the Nets (20-34), 76ers (20-34), Bulls (22-33) and Trail Blazers (23-32). Of those teams, Philadelphia may still have enough talent to make a late playoff push with better health, while Portland has quietly won 10 of its last 14 games.
Players like Fox, rookie guard Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell could keep San Antonio competitive without Wembanyama. More likely, though, the Spurs could increase their No. 1 pick chances by a few percentage points if they struggle without their 21-year-old star center.
MORE: Why Victor Wembanyama is no longer eligible for Defensive Player of the Year
Historically, San Antonio has had some luck on its side in the Draft Lottery.
According to RealGM, here’s a look at how the Spurs have fared in the NBA Draft Lottery throughout their franchise history:
Daniel Mader joined Sporting News as an editorial intern in 2024 following his graduation from Penn State University. Previously, he covered Penn State, high school and local sports beats for NBC Sports, the Centre Daily Times, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, The Daily Collegian and LancasterOnline. He grew up in Lancaster, Penn., with a love for baseball that’ll never fade, but could also talk basketball or football for days.
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