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by Chris Murray
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The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at San Diego State on Saturday night. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Viejas Arena (12,414 capacity)
TV/Radio: FS1/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: No line posted yet
1. Keep SDSU under 30% from three: SDSU is a great team when it can hit some threes. When it doesn’t, the Aztecs are vulnerable. Nevada played good-shooting SDSU in their first matchup this season as the Aztecs hit 9-of-25 shots from beyond the arc (36 percent) in its 19-point rout in Reno. SDSU is not a good 3-point shooting team, hitting a MW-worst 30.8 percent of those shots in league play after hitting 36.9 percent in non-league, although that number was boosted by making 18 treys against Division III Occidental. If Nevada keeps SDSU below 30 percent shooting from three, it has a shot at the upset. But if the Aztecs have a good distance shooting game, it’s going to be curtains for the Wolf Pack. Nevada ranks last in MW play in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to make 37.2 percent from deep.
2. 25-plus free throw shots: SDSU’s defense remains elite, ranking 13th in the nation, per KenPom, and second in the MW in league play in adjusted defensive efficiency. That defense held Nevada to a season-low 50 points in January as the Wolf Pack made only 15 field goals at a 29.4 percent rate. It’s unlikely Nevada has a ton of success scoring buckets in the halfcourt, so the Wolf Pack must get to the free throw line, which is possible versus SDSU, which fouls a ton. The Aztecs rank 281st in defensive free throw rate, meaning SDSU puts its opponents on the line a ton. The Wolf Pack outshot the Aztecs, 22-8, in free throws attempts in its first game and needs another lopsided edge like that with the goal being 25 or more free throws. Nevada, which has struggled from the stripe, obviously needs to hit them, too.
3. Match the physicality: Nevada has been one of the MW’s best teams inside the arc with strong shooting marks in the paint as well as the mid-range level. But the Wolf Pack got beat up by SDSU down low earlier this season, making just 10-of-25 two-point attempts (40 percent), its second-worst mark in 30 games. SDSU is expected to be without 7-foot center Magoon Gwath, who has missed the team’s last three games with injury and is doubtful against the Wolf Pack. That could be a big development for Nevada as Gwath had 15 points, 13 rebounds and two blocks while making 7-of-7 shots in the win earlier this season against the Wolf Pack. His loss will be noticeable and should help Nevada, which has been pounded on the glass over the last three weeks – minus-60 boards in its last six games. SDSU is one of the nation’s most physical teams, and the Wolf Pack must play through that, especially in the paint.
San Diego State 66, Nevada 58: There are lots of reasons that make it hard to pick Nevada to win, including (a) the Wolf Pack being 0-12 at Viejas Arena since moving to the MW in 2012; (b) SDSU needing this win to stay on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble; (c) Nevada being 0-9 against the league’s top-five teams; and (d) the Wolf Pack’s 3-7 road record with those three victories over KenPom teams 176, 244 and 305. If Nevada is going to win this game, it needs to get Kobe Sanders and Nick Davidson both going, something that hasn’t happened much as the duo has scored 20 points in the same game just once in 19 MW matchups. They were held to 18 points on 6-of-23 shooting in the first game versus SDSU and will need to fare much better for Nevada to score the upset. Season record: 21-9
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
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