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Macro volatility factors were large in January, BTC was under pressure, and altcoins showed signs of recovery
Combined with this week’s on-chain data, the following analyzes the impact of these data on the BTC market from the aspects of capital flow , price indicators , and trading volume , and evaluates the key risks and opportunities in future trends.
Combining this week's macroeconomic indicators and market data analysis, the altcoin market is experiencing continuous adjustments and capital outflow pressure. The following is an analysis of this week's altcoin market performance from multiple dimensions, including altcoin season indicators, capital flows, BTC market share, OTHERS market share, and USDT market share , and looks forward to possible future development paths.
Cottage Season Indicators
This Friday, the Altcoin Index was 47, almost the same as last Friday, indicating that the Altcoin has clearly bottomed out. As we concluded last week, as long as BTC does not fall further, the Altcoin will have the hope of slowly recovering to its previous high. 
It can be clearly seen from Crypto Bubbles that the altcoin rebounded significantly this week. Other tracks all increased by about 10~25%. The Agent track had the largest increase, reaching more than 30%, and AI16Z even increased by 135%. 
Inflow of copycats
This week's inflow data finally improved, from a net outflow of US$2.347 billion last week to a net outflow of US$43.86 million this week. The outflow of funds decreased by 98% month-on-month. Many tracks have shown a net inflow trend during the week. 
However, as we mentioned earlier, the pullback in the market value of stablecoins is a major hidden danger for the market that is undergoing recovery. Therefore, there are still risks in the short term, so investors are advised to pay attention. 
BTC market share (ratio, growth rate)
BTC's market share is still falling compared to last week, and the daily MACD crosses. This test failed to successfully break through the resistance range, and the trend of stepping back to the long-term support line is quite obvious. Compared with the performance of BTC's weekly closing this week, BTC rose and the market share fell. In addition, the net inflow of $120 million of all currencies except BTC is enough to show that the overall altcoins were relatively active this week, and BTC's strong position has not been sustained for the time being.
As for the overall direction of BTC's market share in the future, we still need to wait for Trump or other important macro news factors to have an impact on BTC prices before we can make further judgments. 
OTHERS.D
The total market capitalization share of tokens outside the top ten was repeatedly tested above the Fibonacci 0.236 level this week, forming support once again, and the daily MACD confirmed the golden cross. 
In order to better observe the big cycle trend, we look at the monthly line. On the monthly line, we have reached the end of the triangle pattern, and MACD is about to cross underwater, which may mean that there will be considerable potential upward momentum waiting for the cottage this year. 
If we stick to the old ways, based on the rise of OTHERS.D in the last cycle: the cycle lasted for one year, and the rise was about 244%. We start from the current Fibonacci 0.236 and calculate that OTHERS.D has risen by 244% this year, which is close to the 2.618 level, which is almost the same as our previous view of OTHERS.D to escape the top. After cross-comparing with the BTC trend in the last cycle, we get the following pattern:
At present, the conditions for BTC to start in Q1 this year need to focus on whether the Trump effect and the macro environment can be met. The incremental growth of altcoins is not obvious at present. Coupled with the current intervention of ETFs, the altcoin market has a significant lag effect in terms of time dimension. Therefore, the limitation of cutting the boat to find the sword is large, and it is for reference only. However, we are still optimistic about the start of the altcoin season in the medium term, and maintain the original conclusion that the altcoin season will be around January to March. 
USDT Market Share
Finally, USDT.D has failed many times in its attempts to break through the white long-term support line, and the support has turned into resistance. The daily line has retraced to the resistance range of the 22-year bull tail, and the MACD has formed a death cross, and it is expected to continue to fall back into this resistance range, which is undoubtedly a short-term positive for the copycat. 
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Written by: Sylvia / Jim / Mat / Cage / WolfDAO
Edited by: Punko / Nora
Thanks to the above partners for their outstanding contributions to this weekly report. This weekly report is published by WolfDAO for learning, research or appreciation only.
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