The clandestine relationship between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Islamist Bangladesh 2.0 has recently garnered significant attention, raising concerns regarding regional stability and security. Recent reports indicate a well-planned ingress by the ISI in Bangladesh to bolster its influence. This entails both direct and indirect strategies to achieve its strategic objectives and weaken India. The spillover of these actions reaches far beyond Bangladesh, potentially unsettling neighbouring India and influencing the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia. However, the circumstances are intricate and demand thorough examination because of the possible consequences. Although these operations may appear confined, their impact could reverberate across the entire region and even at a global level.
ISI’s Expanding Footprint in Bangladesh
The history of the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) intervening in the geopolitics of South Asia is thoroughly documented; it frequently encompasses covert operations aimed at promoting Pakistan’s strategic interests. Recent intelligence reports indicate that the ISI is amplifying its activities in Bangladesh—seeking to create a foothold for both regional and international operations. These endeavours reportedly enjoy the tacit backing of influential individuals within Bangladesh’s interim administration. This situation raises concerns regarding state complicity; however, the ramifications of such support are multifaceted. Although the ISI’s motives might appear transparent, the consequences for regional stability remain ambiguous.
Alleged Patronage of Muhammad Yunus
One of the most troubling aspects of these developments is the alleged support of Muhammad Yunus (the Nobel Peace Prize recipient), a prominent figure in Bangladesh’s political arena. Yunus, who currently holds considerable sway in the interim government, has faced accusations of facilitating ISI operations. His advisors have purportedly made incendiary statements regarding the “occupation” of India’s northeastern states; this assertion has, therefore, further exacerbated India-Bangladesh relations. Although such rhetoric, coupled with allegations of complicity in covert activities, has garnered extensive criticism, it remains uncertain how these tensions will progress. However, the ramifications of these occurrences are significant.
Maritime Infiltration: Weapons and Drugs
One of the primary methods through which the ISI is infiltrating Bangladesh is via maritime routes. Ships originating from Pakistan have been reported to carry weapons and narcotics into Bangladesh. These shipments, purportedly intended to fund and support militant activities, violate international laws and threaten regional peace. The scale and frequency of these operations highlight a well-organised supply chain designed to destabilise the region.
Exploitation of the Bihari Community
The Urdu-speaking Bihari community in Bangladesh (which has historically faced marginalisation and is estimated to number around 300,000) has become a central focus for ISI operations. The agency is reportedly engaged in providing terrorist training to these individuals, intending to utilise them as assets for executing attacks against India. This exploitation not only exacerbates the community’s plight but also represents a grave security threat. By radicalising disenfranchised groups, the ISI is creating a network of operatives capable of conducting cross-border operations.
Collaboration with Rohingya Militants
The ISI’s involvement with Rohingya militant factions—especially the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)—introduces yet another dimension to this intricate issue. Through intermediaries like Hizb-ut-Tahrir and trained Biharis, the ISI supplies weapons, explosives, and logistical support to these groups. These activities are designed not only to destabilise India; they also specifically target the Arakan Army in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. This dual-front strategy underscores the ISI’s objective to create widespread instability in the region; however, it raises significant concerns about the broader implications for regional security.
Cyber Intimidation and Psychological Operations
The ISI’s tactics extend beyond physical operations to include cyber and psychological warfare. Moreover, a well-structured cyber unit operating in Bangladesh has been dispatching menacing messages to numerous Hindu individuals (labelling them “Indian agents”) and alleging that they support Bangladesh’s struggle for independence. This cyber harassment aims to instill discord and fear among minority groups; however, it further undermines the social cohesion of Bangladesh. Although the intent may be to intimidate, the consequences are far-reaching, affecting the very essence of community life.
High-Level Meetings and Strategic Alignments
Reports indicate that Muhammad Yunus is scheduled to meet with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Egypt, accompanied by key military personnel. Such high-level interactions suggest a coordinated effort to strategise and expand ISI influence. These meetings raise concerns about potential international ramifications, as they indicate a broader network of collaboration aimed at undermining regional stability.
The Role of Daniel Stephen Courtney
Adding to this intricate web of activities is the case of Daniel Stephen Courtney, a US Army veteran and alleged deep-cover terror handler. Courtney has reportedly intensified his operations in India after being blacklisted and deported in 2017. Operating from a base in Nepal under the guise of a business visa, Courtney’s activities highlight the transnational nature of these threats. Despite his notoriety, Nepalese authorities have allegedly assisted, complicating efforts to neutralise his operations.
Implications for India and Regional Security
The expanding influence of the ISI in Bangladesh presents significant implications for India and the wider region. India’s northeastern states (which are already susceptible) due to insurgent activities face heightened threats from ISI-supported networks. Cross-border terrorism, arms smuggling, and radicalisation efforts could destabilise India’s internal security and strain bilateral relations with Bangladesh; however, the ISI’s collaboration with Rohingya and other militant groups has the potential to create a ripple effect of violence across the region (targeting Myanmar and other neighbouring countries). Although this situation is precarious, it demands immediate attention because the consequences could be far-reaching.
Regional security mechanisms are also at risk. South Asia’s fragile stability could be further compromised if the ISI succeeds in establishing Bangladesh as a launchpad for international terrorism. Such developments would necessitate a robust response from regional organisations like SAARC and international actors to address the growing menace effectively.
Call to Action: Fortifying Regional Collaboration
In light of the seriousness of these developments, immediate action is necessary to counter the ISI’s activities. Key measures encompass.
Enhanced Intelligence Sharing: Regional stakeholders must place a high priority on the exchange of intelligence to effectively monitor and dismantle ISI networks.
Strengthened Border Security: Strengthened border security and improved surveillance and enforcement at maritime and land borders are crucial for curbing illegal shipments of weapons and drugs.
Community Engagement: Community engagement is also vital because addressing the grievances of marginalised groups, such as the Biharis, can help prevent their exploitation by external actors.
International Cooperation: Collaborative efforts with global allies are necessary to expose and neutralise transnational networks like those involving Daniel Stephen Courtney.
Turning a blind eye to these threats and not nipping them in the bud could result in an upsurge of Islamist terrorism and violence and further destabilise an already volatile region. The global community must recognise the urgency of this threat and act decisively to ensure peace and stability in South Asia. Although there may be obstacles and myopic national interests, immediate action must be taken to prevent South Asia from becoming the hub of Islamist terrorism with global footprints.
Conclusion
The growing influence of Pakistan’s ISI in Bangladesh, allegedly supported by significant figures within the interim government, poses a serious threat to regional peace and stability. The agency’s multifaceted strategy, which spans from exploiting marginalised communities to enabling terrorism and cyber intimidation, necessitates a comprehensive and coordinated response. However, only through collective action can the region aspire to counter these destabilising activities and secure a safer future for its populace.
The author is former Director General, Mechanised Forces. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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