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As the inauguration of Donald Trump is set for January 20, 2025, observers are closely watching his economic directions, particularly their potential impact on bitcoin. According to Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, Trump’s policies may depend on the balance between the supremacy of the dollar and the prospects offered by cryptos. This analysis highlights the issues related to the hegemony of the dollar, which continues to dominate global exchanges despite a loss of value of more than 90 % since 1913. While some countries are adopting digital solutions to escape monetary crises, such as the rise of stablecoins in emerging economies, the role of bitcoin remains ambiguous. This subject, at the crossroads of traditional finance and disruptive technologies, raises questions about the future of cryptos in an economic system where American policies still influence the rest of the world.
Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, emphasized that Donald Trump’s decisions regarding bitcoin could be influenced by the perception of the economic strength of the United States and the global dominance of the dollar. He explained that reserve assets like gold and bitcoin tend to increase in value when investors perceive a threat to American economic hegemony. “Reserve assets like gold and bitcoin see their value rise when investors perceive a threat to American economic hegemony,” he stated. Furthermore, he highlights the correlation between geopolitical dynamics and fluctuations in financial markets.
However, according to Ki Young Ju, the dollar still maintains its role as a safe haven today, particularly due to the confidence it inspires among international investors. This apparent strength is evident in the capital flows that continue to favor the dollar, even in unstable economic contexts. “In emerging economies, citizens prefer dollars or dollar-indexed stablecoins over bitcoin or gold, especially during periods of monetary instability,” he specified. This reality illustrates the maintenance of dollar dominance, reinforced by economic policies that attract investors to assets backed by this currency. In this regard, the dollar strength index, which has been consistently rising since October 2024, reflects the greenback’s ability to withstand global economic uncertainties.
A key element that further strengthens the dollar’s position is the rapid rise of stablecoins. Charles Cascarilla, CEO of Paxos, stated that “dollar-backed stablecoins will play a key role in the blockchain economy, combining the speed of the internet with the stability of a fiat currency.” Such an observation sheds more light on the potential of stablecoins to modernize the global financial system and cement the central role of the dollar.
This dynamic is particularly evident in economies hit by high inflation, like Turkey, where stablecoins now represent a significant portion of transactions. The country’s rapid inflation, which was at 67 % in March 2024, has led citizens to seek stable alternatives, making stablecoins a preferred solution. This phenomenon reveals an interesting paradox. While bitcoin is often perceived as protection against monetary crises, it is the dollar-backed stablecoins that attract attention in these contexts. These digital tools, which respond to the needs of a changing economy, indirectly reinforce the dollar’s dominance in the global market.
The strategic choices of Donald Trump could also play a central role in the evolution of this trend. If he were to prioritize the protection of dollar supremacy, this could slow down policies favorable to bitcoin adoption and accelerate the digitization of fiat currencies through stablecoins. Therefore, the future of bitcoin will hinge on a delicate balance between the technological innovation it represents and the geopolitical issues related to the economic power of the United States.
This analysis informs about the complex forces reshaping the future of bitcoin in light of American economic policies. On one side, preserving dollar supremacy remains a strategic priority for the United States. On the other side, the gradual integration of bitcoin and blockchain technologies questions the balance between innovation and geopolitics. In this context, the Trump administration could play a pivotal role that would influence the interaction between traditional fiat currencies and cryptos, thus defining new dynamics for the global economy.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
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